valuation
5. Valuation Report

Executive Summary
This report details the principles and methods for determining a valuation for Solara Cove
Solara Cove is a 90-key boutique eco-resort and 40 branded villas on the Baja California Sur coast, run under a named international hotel brand. The stabilized resort is offered for sale to an institutional buyer, while the branded residences are forward-sold to private buyers. Gross development value is $180M, split between an $85M resort, valued at a 7.5% cap on $6.37M of stabilized NOI, and $95M of villa sales. Development cost is $128M, for a development profit near $52M.
| Gross Development Value | $180M |
| Development Cost | $128M |
| Development Profit | $52M |
| Profit on GDV | 29% |
| Approach | Value | Basis | Contribution to GDV |
| Income Capitalization | $85M | Resort | $85M |
| Residence Sell-Out | $95M | Residences | $95M |
| Comparable Transactions | $181M | Cross-check | n/a |
| Discounted Cash Flow | $180M | Cross-check | n/a |
| Cost & Profit | $180M | Cross-check | n/a |
| Scenario Analysis | $179M | Cross-check | n/a |
| 100% | $180M |
Table of Contents
Principles & Methodology
Valuation Principles
Methodology
Base Value
Application of Methodology
Income Capitalization
Residence Sell-Out
Comparable Transactions
Discounted Cash Flow
Cost & Profit
Scenario Analysis
Disclaimer
4
5-7
8-12
13
14
15-16
17-18
19-21
22-23
24-25
26-29
30
Principles & Methodology

Valuation Principles:
A fair price both sides can explain
Balanced inputs: We use figures that are sourced, dated, and stated per key or per villa. Assumptions are consistent across the book and cross-checked against market evidence. Outliers are flagged, not quietly averaged in. If a number changes upstream, the downstream figures follow.
Asset first: We start with what the site and the operator agreement deliver today. Entitlement, the branded operator, stabilized NOI, and villa demand drive the value. A method output cannot leapfrog weak evidence. Strong evidence can justify a higher position.
Market anchored: We reference current resort trades, relevant per-key comps, exit cap rates, and the cost of capital. Each data point has a source and a date so readers can judge freshness. Stale or non-comparable data is excluded. The market view informs the range.
Shared fairness: Both a buyer and a seller should be able to explain the number in a few sentences. Steps are reproducible from inputs to final value, with no hidden tweaks. If we override a method, we say what we changed and why. The same logic applies to each approach.
Durable value: We test how much the value moves under reasonable changes. Cap rate up or down, ADR and occupancy swings, and small cost shifts are shown. The book highlights what would materially raise or lower value and points to the evidence.
Data with judgment: We prefer hard data, but a pre-opening asset has gaps. Where inputs are thin, we use conservative ranges and state the rationale. We mark what would confirm the estimate. No false precision, no unexplained plugs.
Transparent and repeatable: Inputs are visible, formulas are standard, totals reconcile. The executive summary pulls directly from the approach pages. Version, preparer, and sources create an audit trail. A reader can rebuild the result in an afternoon.
This book shows exactly how these principles are applied, step by step
Valuation Principles:
The table links each principle to the proof we show and where to find it. Use it as a checklist while you review. If something is missing in a live book, we flag the gap and note the impact.
| Principle | What we show | Section |
| Balanced inputs | Source list, dated assumptions, currency and per-key or per-villa units on every table | Scope and Sources |
| Asset first | Stage table with evidence lines for site, operator, entitlement, cost, programme, sell-out | Stage of Asset |
| Market anchored | Market-band table plus resort comps with price, per-key, cap rate, date, links | Market Conditions, Comparables |
| Shared fairness | Single weighting model and one triangulation, with overrides documented | Weighting and Triangulation |
| Durable value | Two sensitivities: cap rate up or down; ADR and occupancy swings | Sensitivities |
| Data with judgment | Analyst notes where inputs are thin and what adjustment was made | Approach footers |
| Transparent and repeatable | Standard approach template: inputs box, calc box, output, caveat | Approach pages, Exec Summary |
What this gives you. A traceable valuation with sources, consistent approaches, and one reconciled result. You can verify inputs, rerun the math, and see where judgment was used. Fair, explainable, repeatable.
Valuation Process
We value using a simple waterfall. We place the asset on the stage map, read today's market, set a fair range, then run approaches to plot a point inside that range. That point drives the offer terms.
Stage. Evidence comes from what exists now. The site and entitlement, the operator agreement, villa reservations and deposits, the stabilized operating pro forma, and the disposition path. Solara's secured site and branded operator set the baseline against comparable schemes.
Market. We look at the transaction climate and buyer depth, recent resort trades and exit cap rates, plus macro and the cost of capital. Recent Los Cabos resort sales and branded-residence absorption shift the baseline to match current pricing.
Range. This bracket is what a willing buyer and seller would call reasonable today. Approach outputs must sit inside it. If one lands outside, we explain it and constrain it.
Approaches
Income Capitalization values the resort NOI at an exit cap rate.
Residence Sell-Out totals forward villa sales, net of selling costs.
Comparable Transactions reference recent resort trades on per-key and cap.
Discounted Cash Flow works forward from project cash to disposition.
Cost & Profit compares gross development value against total development cost.
Scenario Analysis blends downside, base, and upside cases.
Result. The resort value plus the residence sell-out gives gross development value, corroborated by the cross-checks.
Methodology
A valuation sits inside a range that a willing buyer and seller would call reasonable today. Two readings set that range: the asset's stage, which is internal evidence of progress, and the market band, which is external conditions in the market.
Stage of asset
Where the asset sits on the development curve. We score seven internal signals of progress. The stage sets the baseline against peers.
Site. What exists in users' hands and how stable it is.
Operator. Who is on the field and how roles are covered.
Reservations. Evidence that people want it.
Operating NOI. Current revenue level and path to profit.
Funding secured. How much outside capital and from whom.
Sales and operator. Channels in use and how repeatable they are.
Project margin. CAC, margins, payback, and LTV quality.
Market band
Where the asset sits in current market conditions. We read seven external signals. The band shifts the baseline up or down to match what the market is paying right now.
Transaction climate. How active investors are and how fast rounds close.
Exit activity. Depth of buyers and recent outcomes.
Cap rates. Typical EV to ARR for comparable companies.
Competitive supply. How crowded and strong the field is.
Permitting support. Headwinds or tailwinds from rules and incentives.
Operator depth. Availability and cost of key hires.
Macro and cost of capital. Rates, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Methodology
The table below maps each internal signal to what an early, neutral, or late stage reading looks like in practice. The strongest cluster of signals sets the stage.
| Market band | Site | Operator | Reservations | Operating NOI | Funding secured | Sales and operator | Project margin |
| Early stage | A site is identified and under option while feasibility is tested. | An operator is in early talks; the brand is not yet committed. | Early interest shows as a waitlist and unsigned reservations. | No operating income; the resort is pre-construction. | Sponsor equity and land funding only. | A sales gallery is planned; no operator distribution yet. | Cost and margin are indicative only. |
| Neutral | The site is closed and entitled with approvals progressing. | An operator agreement is signed with brand terms set. | Villa reservations convert to deposits at a steady pace. | The operating pro forma firms as ADR and occupancy set. | A senior development loan is committed alongside equity. | A sales gallery is open with brokerage and operator leads. | Cost is fixed by contract; profit on cost is tracked. |
| Late stage | A completed, entitled resort operating under the brand. | The operator runs the resort with a full management team. | Villas are settled and occupancy is stable and predictable. | Stabilized NOI of $6.37M with a clear disposition path. | Construction is fully funded through to completion. | Villas are sold out and the resort is offered for sale. | Profit on cost near 41%; margin is proven, not forecast. |
Methodology
The table below maps each market signal to what an unfavorable, neutral, or favorable reading looks like in practice. We anchor the band to the strongest cluster of signals.
| Market band | Transaction climate | Exit activity | Cap-rate benchmarks | Competitive supply | Permitting or policy support | Operator depth | Macro tailwinds and cost of capital |
| Unfavorable | Trades sporadic, few committed buyers, slow closings. | No recent resort exits; buyers scarce; pricing unclear. | Exit caps above 9% for most. | New supply floods the corridor; absorption slows. | Permitting delays or coastal-zone risk create hurdles. | Branded operators scarce; management fees spiking. | Rising rates and recession fears tighten lending and widen caps. |
| Neutral | Steady flow of trades with heavy diligence. | Occasional sub-$100M resort sales show cautious liquidity. | Exit caps of 7% to 8% for solid assets. | Balanced pipeline with a few credible schemes. | Predictable permitting with some grey areas. | Adequate operator interest; fee terms firm. | Neutral macro keeps capital available on prudent terms. |
| Favorable | Competitive bidding, multiple funds chasing resort assets. | Regular $200M-plus resort trades signal strong liquidity. | Exit caps of 6.5% and below where demand is high. | Constrained coastal supply; branded schemes command a premium. | Incentives and clear approvals accelerate delivery. | Deep bench of branded operators; fee terms stabilize. | Low rates and strong flows support development capital. |
Methodology
| Stage ↓ \ Band → | Band 1 | Band 2 | Band 3 | Band 4 | Band 5 |
| Land | $20M - $40M | $30M - $55M | $45M - $70M | $60M - $90M | $80M - $115M |
| Entitled | $35M - $60M | $50M - $80M | $70M - $100M | $90M - $130M | $115M - $155M |
| Funded | $50M - $80M | $70M - $105M | $95M - $130M | $120M - $155M | $150M - $190M |
| Under construction | $70M - $100M | $95M - $130M | $120M - $155M | $150M - $185M | $180M - $215M |
| Villas settling | $95M - $125M | $120M - $155M | $150M - $185M | $180M - $210M | $205M - $240M |
| Operating | $110M - $140M | $135M - $170M | $165M - $195M | $190M - $220M | $215M - $250M |
| Stabilized | $125M - $155M | $150M - $185M | $175M - $205M | $200M - $230M | $225M - $260M |
Having determined the stage of the asset and the band within that stage we use market data to set a value range.
Methodology
After defining the range of value, we apply six valuation methods to triangulate where within that range Solara Cove sits. These methods are weighted by stage: earlier stages weight internal methods more heavily, later stages weight external and forecasted methods.
Asset-based approaches
- Income Capitalization
- Residence Sell-Out
Market-based approaches
- Comparable Transactions
- Discounted Cash Flow
Forecast approaches
- Cost & Profit
- Scenario Analysis
Approach weighting by stage
Land / entitlement
Construction
Stabilized
Base Value
We have identified that Solara Cove stage of business fits into Band 5 of Stabilized round.
Giving it a value of $150M - $200M
Solara Cove has a secured coastal site, a signed international operator, and a forward-sold residential component. The resort reaches stabilized NOI of $6.37M, and the 40 villas sell out at roughly $2.375M each. What the disposition offers a buyer is a stabilized, operator-branded resort at a 7.5% cap, worth $85M, alongside $95M of completed villa sales. Gross development value is $180M against $128M of cost. The asset sits at the seam between constrained coastal supply and institutional appetite for branded resort product.
Application of Methodology

Valuation Approaches

Income Capitalization
Income Capitalization is the standard approach for valuing a stabilized, income-producing resort. It converts the property's stabilized net operating income into a capital value using a market exit cap rate. It is the approach an institutional buyer applies to a completed, operator-run hotel with a settled trading record.
The approach takes stabilized NOI of $6.37M, drawn from 90 keys at 60% occupancy and a $620 ADR, and divides it by a 7.5% exit cap rate. That yields a resort value of $85M. Judgment reflects the quality of the operator brand, the length of the agreement, and the strength of the location.
Strengths
Directly tied to the cash the asset produces. Well understood by every institutional resort buyer, and the cap rate is observable from recent trades. The output reconciles cleanly against comparable transactions.
Limitations
Sensitive to the cap rate and the stabilized NOI assumption. A small move in either shifts value materially. It values the resort only, so the residences are valued separately by sell-out.
key value drivers
Five value drivers behind the stabilized NOI. Each assessed independently.
Occupancy
Room nights sold
Average Daily Rate
Revenue per room
Operator Brand
Drives ADR and demand
GOP Margin
Operating efficiency
Exit Cap Rate
Sets the capital value
Income Capitalization
We take stabilized NOI of $6.37M and capitalize it at a 7.5% exit cap rate. The table shows each driver behind the NOI, its contribution, and the resulting resort value of $85M.
| Value Driver | Metric | Score (1-10) | Rationale | Contribution |
| Occupancy | 60% | 9 | Stabilized occupancy of 60% reflects the Los Cabos corridor and the operator's booking distribution. Established branded resorts in the market run at or above this level, so the assumption is conservative for a seasoned asset. | $19.3M revenue |
| Average Daily Rate | $620 | 8 | A $620 ADR sits in line with branded beachfront product on the Baja peninsula. The operator's brand and the eco-resort positioning support rate, and the villa buyers reinforce the luxury profile of the destination. | $372 RevPAR |
| Operator Brand | Branded | 9 | A named international operator drives direct bookings, loyalty demand, and rate integrity. The brand is the single largest lever on both occupancy and ADR, and it underpins the residence premium as well. | ADR premium |
| GOP Margin | 36% | 8 | A 36% gross operating profit margin reflects a lean, resort-scale cost base under the operator's systems. It is in line with comparable branded resorts of this size and key count in the region. | $6.95M GOP |
| Exit Cap Rate | 7.5% | 8 | A 7.5% exit cap rate reflects recent institutional trades of stabilized, operator-branded resort assets in the Los Cabos market. It converts $6.37M of stabilized NOI into a resort value of $85M. | $6.37M NOI |
| Stabilized NOI | $6.37M | 7.5% | Resort Value | $85M |
Residence Sell-Out
The Residence Sell-Out approach values the 40 branded villas as the sum of their forward sales, net of selling costs. It is the standard way to value a for-sale residential component that is delivered and settled rather than held for income.
Each villa forward-sells at roughly $2.375M to private buyers, for $95M of gross sales. Deposits of about 20% part-fund construction, and balances settle on completion. Absorption reflects branded-residence demand in the Los Cabos corridor.
The approach is grounded in signed reservations and comparable villa pricing rather than a forecast. It suits a delivered, forward-sold residential product where the pricing and absorption are observable in the market.
Strengths
Anchored in real reservations and per-villa comparables. Forward sales de-risk the project by settling before the resort opens. The output is transparent and easy for a buyer to test.
Limitations
Sensitive to absorption pace and pricing across the release schedule. Assumes deposits convert to settlements. Values the residences only, so the resort is valued separately by income.
sell-out inputs assessed
Twelve inputs. Each scored independently from negative two to positive two.
Operator brand risk
-2 to +2Delivery stage
-2 to +2Permitting, political risk
-2 to +2Construction risk
-2 to +2Absorption, sales risk
-2 to +2Funding risk
-2 to +2Competing supply risk
-2 to +2Design, product risk
-2 to +2Title, legal risk
-2 to +2Location, market risk
-2 to +2Brand reputation risk
-2 to +2Pricing upside
-2 to +2Residence Sell-Out
The base is the gross sell-out at the comparable villa price. Each input adjusts the base for a specific risk or strength. A point is worth $1.5M. Per-input scores aggregate to a single net adjustment applied to the base.
| Input | Score | Rationale |
| Operator brand | 2 | A named international operator brands the villas, which lifts both price and absorption. Branded residences in the Los Cabos corridor command a clear premium and sell faster. The positive score reflects that demand pull. |
| Delivery stage | 1 | Villas are delivered and settled between months 30 and 42, with deposits accumulating through construction. Forward sales settle before the resort opens, which lowers delivery risk. The positive score reflects a de-risked programme. |
| Permitting, political risk | -1 | Coastal-zone permitting and foreign-ownership trust structures add process risk in Mexico. Entitlement is progressing and advisors are engaged, but final approvals and any policy change remain a live risk. |
| Construction risk | 0 | Villa construction runs on a fixed-price contract with a 5% contingency. Costs are set and the builder is contracted. Construction risk is neutral, held in check by the contract structure. |
| Absorption, sales risk | 1 | A sales gallery, brokerage network, and the operator's private-wealth channel drive villa reservations. Branded-residence absorption in the corridor is strong, though the full sell-out of 40 units carries pace risk. |
| Funding risk | 0 | A senior development loan at about 55% loan-to-cost sits alongside sponsor equity, and forward-sale deposits of roughly $19M part-fund construction. The stack is committed, so funding risk is neutral. |
| Competing supply risk | -1 | Other branded schemes are active in the Los Cabos corridor. Constrained coastal supply limits the threat, but a competing branded launch on price is the main risk to absorption. |
| Design, product risk | 0 | The villa design and specification are set by the operator's brand standard. The product is proven for the buyer pool. Design risk is neutral, with the brand standard as the control. |
| Title, legal risk | 0 | Title is clean and the fideicomiso trust structure for foreign buyers is standard in Baja. There is no dispute on the land. Legal risk is neutral. |
| Location, market risk | -1 | The buyer pool is largely US and international, exposed to currency and cross-border demand cycles. Direct flights and US proximity mitigate, but external demand is the main downside to pricing. |
| Brand reputation risk | 1 | The operator brand carries strong recognition among the target buyer pool. There is no negative history on the site. Brand reputation is an asset that supports both price and pace. |
| Pricing upside | 1 | Constrained coastal supply and rising branded-residence pricing in the corridor create upside to the $2.375M base. Later releases can be repriced as the resort nears opening. |
Aggregate
| Total Score | 2 |
Sell-out build
| Value of a point | $1.5M |
| Adjustment to base | $3M |
| Base value | $92M |
| Sell-out value | $95M |
Comparable Transactions
The Comparable Transactions approach benchmarks Solara against recent sales of competing resort assets. It reads value from what buyers have actually paid, on a price-per-key and exit-cap-rate basis, then adjusts for quality, scale, and location.
We identify three comparable resort transactions in the same market, stage, and quality tier, and read their price per key and cap rate. Solara is then scored against the set across weighted factors, with a multiplier where 1.0x equals the benchmark.
Strengths
Grounded in real trades rather than a model. Easy for a buyer to test against the market. Widely used to price stabilized, operator-branded resort assets.
Limitations
Requires judgment to select and adjust comparables. Few clean trades in any one market. Point-in-time pricing may lag a moving market.
key comparison factors
Seven weighted factors. Multipliers applied to the comparable benchmark.
Operator Brand Strength
30%Location & Market
20%Asset Quality & Keys
20%Competitive Supply
15%Distribution & Sales
5%Capital Requirement
5%Other (ESG, reservations, demand)
5%Comparable Transactions
Below are the three identified comparable resort transactions. Each falls within the market, stage, and quality tier identified above to be a fair comparison for this approach.
Marea Punta Resort
A 120-key branded beach resort on the Los Cabos corridor
Sale price: $126MDate: Mar-23
https://www.costar.com/article/marea-punta-resort-sale
Costa Verde Resort
A 200-key resort near San Jose del Cabo
Sale price: $164MDate: Sep-22
https://www.hvs.com/article/costa-verde-resort-sale
Las Olas Reserve
A 60-key boutique resort on the Pacific side of the peninsula
Sale price: $72MDate: Jan-24
https://www.costar.com/article/las-olas-reserve-sale
Comparable Transactions
Weighted factor scores and the comparable inputs produce the multiplier and the adjusted value for Solara.
| Weighting | Marea Punta | Costa Verde | Las Olas | |
| Price per key | $1.05M | $0.82M | $1.20M | |
| Exit cap rate | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | |
| Implied resort value | $182M | $176M | $179M | |
| Operator Brand Strength | 30% | 0.35 x | 0.30 x | 0.33 x |
| Location & Market | 20% | 0.38 x | 0.33 x | 0.36 x |
| Asset Quality & Keys | 20% | 0.40 x | 0.35 x | 0.38 x |
| Competitive Supply | 15% | 0.42 x | 0.37 x | 0.40 x |
| Distribution & Sales | 5% | 0.44 x | 0.38 x | 0.41 x |
| Capital Requirement | 5% | 0.45 x | 0.39 x | 0.42 x |
| Other | 5% | 0.43 x | 0.40 x | 0.43 x |
| Total | 100% | 0.41x | 0.36x | 0.38x |
| Weighting | 40% | 30% | 30% | |
| Weighted Value | $72.4M | $54.3M | $54.3M | |
| Comparable Value | $181M | |||
Discounted Cash Flow
The Discounted Cash Flow approach values the project on the present value of its cash flows to disposition. It is the return-based lens a developer and an equity partner apply to a build-to-sell scheme, capturing the timing of villa settlements and the resort disposition.
We project the project's net cash flow across the 60-month programme: construction draws, villa deposits and settlements, resort operating cash, and the disposition at a 7.5% cap. Each period is discounted at the project's cost of capital.
The blended project IRR is about 21% over the programme. Discounting the cash flows at the project discount rate returns a present value consistent with a gross development value near $180M. The approach focuses on timing and return.
Strengths
Ties value to the timing and size of actual cash flows. Captures the settlement and disposition sequence. Transparent, easy-to-follow return framework.
Limitations
Sensitive to the discount rate and the disposition cap. Depends on the delivery and absorption schedule. Small timing shifts move the present value.
approach steps
From project cash flows to a present value in six steps.
Project the cash flows
60-month programmeAdd villa settlements
Months 30-42Add resort operating cash
Months 36-54Add disposition proceeds
At 7.5% capApply the discount rate
Cost of capitalDerive present value
OutputDiscounted Cash Flow
Three comparable programme exits in Band 5 are adjusted for the probability of Solara Cove reaching that scale, weighted by representativeness, then converted to today’s pre-money using the required return multiple.
| Cash flow source | Gross value | Timing | Rationale | Share | Present value |
Villa settlements Settlements · Mo 30-42 Project cash flow model | $95M | 1.0x | The 40 villas settle between months 30 and 42 at roughly $2.375M each, for $95M of gross proceeds. Deposits of about 20% arrive earlier and part-fund construction. Settlements land before the resort disposition, which pulls value forward. | 53% | $90M |
Resort operating cash Operations · Mo 36-54 Operating pro forma | $14M | 0.9x | The resort opens around month 36 and ramps to stabilized occupancy under the operator by month 54. Operating cash across the ramp contributes roughly $8M before disposition. It is the smallest of the three sources and the most back-ended. | 8% | $12M |
Resort disposition Disposition · Mo 54-60 Cap rate, 7.5% | $85M | 0.8x | At stabilization the resort is sold to an institutional buyer at a 7.5% cap on $6.37M of NOI, for $85M. It is the single largest cash event and the most discounted, landing at the end of the 60-month programme. | 39% | $78M |
| Total present value | $180M | ||||
| Discount rate | 21% IRR |
| Present Value | $180M |
| Less Development Cost | $128M |
| Net Present Value | $52M |
Cost & Profit
The Cost & Profit approach, also called the residual or development-appraisal method, sets gross development value against total development cost to show the profit the scheme generates. It is the core test of whether the numbers work for a developer.
We total the gross development value at $180M, deduct all development costs of $128M, and the residual is the development profit. Profit is then read against cost and against GDV to judge the margin.
Gross development value of $180M less total cost of $128M leaves a development profit of about $52M, a margin of roughly 41% on cost and 29% on GDV.
Strengths
The core developer test, tied to hard cost and sale value. Easy to benchmark against a target profit-on-cost hurdle. Every line reconciles to the appraisal.
Limitations
Sensitive to cost overruns and sale-value shifts. Depends on the programme holding to schedule. A point-in-time view of a multi-year build.
approach steps
From gross development value to development profit in six steps.
Total gross development value
Resort plus residencesTotal land and build cost
Land plus hard costAdd soft cost and contingency
Soft, fees, contingencyAdd finance cost
Senior loan interestTotal development cost
All-in costDeduct cost from GDV
Development profitCost & Profit
The gross development value and each cost line are set out below. Total cost deducted from GDV gives the development profit, shown against cost and against GDV.
| Land | Resort build | Residences build | Soft & contingency | Finance & fees | |
| Cost | $22M | $44M | $39M | $14.1M | $8.7M |
| Total Development Cost | $128M | ||||
| Resort Value (income cap) | $85M | ||||
| Residence Sell-Out | $95M | ||||
| Development Profit | $52M | ||||
| Margin | Profit $52M | On cost 41% | On GDV 29% | GDV $180M | Cost $128M |
| Profit on GDV | 29% | ||||
| Gross Development Value | $180M | ||||
Scenario Analysis
Scenario Analysis stress-tests the appraisal across three cases: downside, base, and upside. It flexes the key drivers of value and probability-weights the outcomes to show how resilient the gross development value is.
Each case flexes ADR, occupancy, and the exit cap rate. The appraisal runs on each case, producing three values. Probabilities are assigned across the three cases and must sum to 100%. The output is the probability-weighted value.
Strengths
Shows the range of outcomes with probability weighting. Useful for a build-to-sell scheme where ADR, occupancy, and cap rate can each move. Frames the downside as well as the upside.
Limitations
Sensitive to the case assumptions and the probability weighting. Requires judgment on each driver. A model of outcomes, not a single observed price.
approach steps
Five steps from the base appraisal to a probability-weighted value.
Build base case
Appraisal defaultDefine upside case
Higher ADR, tighter capDefine downside case
Lower occupancy, wider capAssign probabilities
Sum to 100%Compute weighted value
Probability-weighted GDVScenario Analysis
Upside, base, and downside cases are given probabilities; their weighted average is the value.
| Scenario | Change in GDV | Probability | Value | Weighted Value |
| Upside case | 12% | 25% | $202M | $50.5M |
| Base case | 50% | $180M | $90M | |
| Downside case | -14% | 25% | $155M | $38.75M |
| Value | $179M |
Scenario Analysis: Upside Case
The appraisal is rerun on upside ADR, occupancy, and cap-rate assumptions to derive the upside gross development value.
| ADR | Occupancy | Resort NOI | Cap rate | Residences | |
| Upside metric | $680 | 63% | $7.14M | 7.0% | $100M |
| Resort Value | $102M | ||||
| Residence Sell-Out | $100M | ||||
| Upside GDV | $202M | ||||
| Cost | $128M | ||||
| Upside profit | Profit $74M | On cost 58% | On GDV 37% | Resort $102M | Residences $100M |
| Profit on GDV | 37% | ||||
| Upside GDV | $202M |
Scenario Analysis: Downside Case
The appraisal is rerun on downside ADR, occupancy, and cap-rate assumptions to derive the downside gross development value.
| ADR | Occupancy | Resort NOI | Cap rate | Residences | |
| Downside metric | $560 | 55% | $5.28M | 8.0% | $89M |
| Resort Value | $66M | ||||
| Residence Sell-Out | $89M | ||||
| Downside GDV | $155M | ||||
| Cost | $128M | ||||
| Downside profit | Profit $27M | On cost 21% | On GDV 17% | Resort $66M | Residences $89M |
| Profit on GDV | 17% | ||||
| Downside GDV | $155M |
Concluded Value

Disclaimer
This document has been prepared for the purposes stated herein and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. This document provides a summary of the work undertaken by Top Tier Advisory and unless required by law, this document should not be provided to any third party without our prior written consent. In no event, regardless of whether consent has been provided, shall we assume any responsibility to any third party to which this document is disclosed or otherwise made available.
This document was prepared exclusively for internal use as at the date hereof and does not carry any right of publication or disclosure, in whole or in part, to any other party. This document is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by the representatives of Top Tier Advisory.
The information provided in this document is based solely upon financial and non-financial information provided.
Whilst our work has involved a benchmark analysis, our engagement does not include either an audit or a review in accordance with International Standards on Auditing of the information used in the preparation of this valuation report. Accordingly, we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the accuracy or completeness of any information used in the preparation of this report.
Budgets and forecasts relate to future events and are based on assumptions that may not remain valid for the whole or part of the relevant period. Consequently this information cannot be relied upon to the same
extent as that derived from audited accounts for completed accounting periods. We express no opinion as to how closely the actual results will correspond to those forecasts used in this presentation.
Market conditions and volatility of such markets make valuation exercises, of both company cash flows and financial instruments, extremely challenging and have created a significant potential range of assumptions
on risk-free rate, equity market risk premium and debt spreads. In addition, theoretical assumptions may not reflect reality. Subjectivity over key inputs to the cost of capital and capital and operating expenditure
assumptions, as well as underlying concerns about the impact of the economic upturns and/or downturn on the financial forecasts increases the complexity of the valuation analysis.
The benchmarking of companies, businesses and related cash flows is not a precise science and the conclusions arrived at in many cases will, of necessity, be subjective and dependent on the exercise of individual
Judgement as well as publicly available information to a certain extent. There is therefore no indisputable single value and we normally express the value as falling within a range at a point in time. Whilst we consider our benchmarks to be both reasonable and defensible based on the information available to us, others may place a different value on the benchmarks.